Commercial Real Estate Finance

Posts Tagged ‘Fed’

Traditionally, August is a dead month for commercial real estate. I understand some of you may be checking from a favorite vacation spot, so we can take the opportunity to broaden the scope of our discussion.

While perhaps not top of mind yet, once Labor Day arrives, election season will be upon us. The 2010 mid-term elections are important in their own right and for setting the tone for the presidential cycle in 2012. Freddie and Fannie alone are enough to make government policy important, and that’s just the beginning. Read the rest of this entry »

The Fed is Maintaining its Securities Holdings in an Effort to Spur Economic Growth

Richard Yorke from Real Capital Analytics Suggest it May Be Time to Buy Commercial Real Estate

Ten Years and All You get is 2.7%?

Yup. And it’s 1.68% more than a Japanese investor gets in Japan.

Long term rates will be kept low for the foreseeable future and the the Fed made it official yesterday. When they told everyone that they would keep $2 trillion (with a “T”) of bonds on their balance sheet, the Fed let the world know how soft the US economy really is. And, what’s worse, is that the markets agreed. Read the rest of this entry »

Commercial Real Estate Week In Review for the Week of July 31-August 6

- Could CMBS loan defaults really reach 15% by year’s end?

- REIT ETF’s might be volatile, but they are still performing well.

- According to IMF, commercial real estate is still a big threat to the economy.

- Screw inflation fears….are we headed for deflation?  Some fund managers think so.

- The once vibrant industrial market of Exit 7A in NJ now has a 48% vacancy rate.
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Commercial Real Estate Week In Review - The Week of July 3-9

- CMBS is returning to middle market loans…just very slowly.

- Holy Schnikies!  The U.S. Government Made a good bet!  The TARP Program has turned a profit.

- Meanwhile, “Pretend and Extend” is now viewed skeptically. ( When was it not?)

- Commercial real estate bonds are under-performing the broader market.  Why?

- Pebblebrook, a hotel REIT, has continued its buying frenzy with a $105M Atlanta purchase.
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Commercial Real Estate Week in Review-June 20-26

-Fed not going to raise interest rates.

-Total amount of distressed commercial real estate down 11% since March.

-Medical Properties Trust acquires 3 hospitals for $74M.

-Commercial real estate prices up 4.7% since October.

-Retail Opportunity Investments Corp (Nasdaq: ROIC) acquires 5 retail centers for $90M.
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China’s decision to let the Yuan appreciate is a drain on global liquidity. While various legislative elements and the treasury have aggressively pushed China to revalue the Yuan, the Federal reserve has indicated that rates will stay low for a while. Unfortunately these policy goals are at odds and it leads to some confusion in the market place.

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Part platitude, part mindless blather, I’m sorry to break out the following trading-floor ‘truism’: “Correlations hold until they don’t.” It’s a sloppy, shorthand way to reminding yourself about the dangers of being complacent. Much of this on-going crisis is the result of complacency developed over years of seemingly inexorable asset appreciation. Market players, regulators, legislators and ratings agencies all were frogs in a pot of water, slowly coming to a boil.

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“The Euro is falling!” they scream on CNBC.  Who cares!? Not me.  It’s supposed to be falling.  They’ve got too much debt and slowing growth.  EUR denominated rates should come down and there is growing risk the European Monetary Union will break up.  By themselves, these facts (assertions?) do not have a great deal to do with the US.

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The Week of April 24- April 30

- Two of the largest U.K. REITs are proposing a merger.

- Amid the calamity, Goldman Sachs is underwriting new CMBS for Taubman.

- Is the credit crisis over for big banks?

- Is lower leverage what is making REITs the darling for property investors?

- Foreign buyers are starting to crowd the U.S. real estate investment market.
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