Real Insight. Real Estate.

Posts Tagged ‘FDIC’

A couple of months after I quit my job at JPM to join Llenrock, I had dinner with my former trading colleagues.  True to form, all we really talked about was trading.  And that, of course, led to talk about specific trades.  It’s the trading analogue to fishing stories about ‘the one that got away’.

In my book, at the time of my departure, was a losing trade.  i.e. I had already lost money on a trade, but had not yet cut my losses in the belief that the market would move my way.  In response to some teasing about the ‘bad trade’ I pointed out that, in fact, the traded ended up moving my way after I left.  I was basically saying, “Hey, I’m not such a dummy after-all.  While I lost money initially, the trade turned and ended up actually making money.”

The response to me: “It’s a mark to market business.” Read the rest of this entry »

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For the Week of February 6-12

- Will small U.S. banks have to start curtailing lending?

- Fannie and Freddie are set to purchase $200 billion in delinquent home loans.

- Multifamily REIT CEOs expect improvement in fundamentals in 2010 and a generally positive year.

- Mall landlords are expecting a much better 2010 according to WSJ online.

- An aquarium development deal in Times Square?
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While many you have not even gotten to the ‘aftermath’ portion of the credit crisis, the federal government is busy not learning lessons with the benefit of hindsight.  Obama’s plan to funnel $30 billion to “small banks” is exactly the sort of central economic planning that effectively caused the crisis. Read the rest of this entry »

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FDIC chairman Sheila Bair discusses banks failures in 2010.
Bair states that commercial real estate loans will continue to play a large role in bank failures.

Indian billionaire Adi Godrej discusses how the Indian central bank’s increase of the reserve requirement will effect real estate markets in India, and the opportunity this presents to foreign investors.

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The Week of January 24-30

- Will 2010 set the record for commercial loan defaults?

- Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village got handed over to creditors.

- Obama was centrally focused on job creation in his first State of the Union Address with little talk of real estate markets.

- The Fed decided to go forward with a plan to end it $1.25 trillion program of mortgage-debt purchases in March.

- Did dealmakers get stuck on the issue of who will negotiate tenant rental concessions at Peter Cooper Village and Stuyvesant Town?
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Half way through 2009, we posted a list published by CNBC.com of the largest bank failures we had seen to that point.  I thought we’d revisit this topic since the second half of ’09 proved to be even worse.  To put things in perspective, consider this: Silverton Bank, which was the second largest failure on CNBC’s list in July just barely made their new version of the list at #10.  8 of the 10 banks on this list went under in the second half of ’09.

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It’s a new year, and with it comes hope.  Yet, for the commercial real estate industry, hope has been replaced by fear, skepticism, cynicism, and negativity.  Most of those feelings stem from the fact that most experts agree that things have to get worse before they can get better.  Namely, the 5 year CMBS loans taken out at CRE’s peak in 2007 are going to come due during an illiquid market in which banks either cannot or care not to extend or modify them. And that has led to Jekyll and Hyde regulation. Read the rest of this entry »

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The Week of December 19-25

- How far away is CRE from rebounding?  Could it only be a year away?

- The Fed has turned down only 3 of 58 legacy CMBS applications for TALF financing.

- How long could small banks suffer for their bad CRE bets?

- CRE in 2009: Where deleveraging is seen as the year’s biggest accomplishment.

- Despite the surge in REIT investment, could there still be opportunity?
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Merry X-Mas!

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The Week of November 28- December 4

- $1.3 Billion in TALF funds are set to buy CRE bonds

- Banks are intensely lobbying Congress to not pass legislation that could break them up.

- Wait, what? Retail deals are getting done?

- Dubai World may sell their trophy properties in order to raise cash.

- Interestingly enough, the government of Dubai, UAE has rejected the idea they are responsible for Dubai World’s debt.
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